Hurricane Nolo is nearly stationary just south of Hawaii Island on September 27, 2026, with sustained winds near Category 5 intensity. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a slow westward motion and weakening to Category 3 by Sunday. Stalling near the Big Island is driving serious flooding risk across windward slopes.
Current Status and Quick Facts
Location and movement: nearly stationary just south of Hawaii Island
Nolo is centered approximately 60 miles south-southwest of Kailua-Kona as of the 11am HST advisory. Motion is west-northwest at 3 mph. The system remains south of the main Hawaiian islands.
Intensity: close to Category 5, expected to become Cat 3 Sunday
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph. The NHC outlook shows gradual weakening over the next 48 hours. Category 3 intensity is forecast by Sunday.
Why Nolo is the fourth storm this season: Lala, Moke, Lowell and Nolo
Nolo is the fourth named system to impact Hawaii in 2026. Lala, Moke and Lowell moved near the chain earlier this season. All four brought rain, wind and large waves.
Hurricane Nolo Track Forecast and Movement
Latest NHC track: begins slowly moving westward, remains south of main Hawaiian islands
The NHC track keeps the center south of Hawaii Island through Monday. Westward drift is expected to increase slightly after stalling.
Stalling near Big Island and what it means for duration of impacts
A stalled or slow-moving hurricane prolongs onshore flow. Rainfall accumulations increase. Wind impacts persist for 24 to 36 hours in coastal zones.
Forecast cone for next 48-72 hours and uncertainty factors
The forecast cone widens after 72 hours. Uncertainty is driven by steering currents and interaction with the island topography.
Flooding and Rainfall Threat
As Hurricane Nolo stalls near Hawaii’s Big Island, serious flooding likely
Heavy rain bands are training over windward slopes of Hawaii Island. Flash flood warnings are in effect for Hilo and Ka’u districts.
Highest risk zones: windward slopes, low-lying areas, stream and flash flood warnings
Hilo, Puna and Ka’u face the highest rainfall totals. Low-lying coastal roads are vulnerable to inundation. Stream gauges are rising rapidly.
Rainfall totals expected and comparison to recent Hawaiian hurricane impacts
Accumulations of 15 to 30 inches are forecast over 48 hours, with isolated totals to 40 inches. This exceeds impacts from Lowell earlier in the season.
Wind, Waves and Surge Impacts
Hurricane force wind gusts forecast for Hawaii Island coastlines
Gusts to 80 mph are possible along south and west facing shores of Hawaii Island. Maui and Oahu can see gusts to 50 mph.
Large waves and surf warning for south and west facing shores
Surf of 20 to 30 feet is expected on south facing beaches. A high surf warning is active for Hawaii Island and Maui.
Storm surge risk and coastal erosion concerns
Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is forecast for Kona coast. Coastal erosion and beach loss are likely.
Impacts by Island and Community
Big Island: Kona, Hilo, Ka’u impacts from stalled system
Kona faces high winds and coastal flooding. Hilo faces prolonged heavy rain. Ka’u faces flash flooding and landslides.
Maui, Oahu, Kauai: indirect rain and wave impacts
Indirect rain and gusty showers are expected. Large swells will impact all south and west shores.
Power outages, road closures and travel disruptions
Hawaii Electric reports pre-positioned crews. Road closures are expected in flood prone areas. Inter-island flights may face delays.
Safety Guidance and Preparation
Evacuation zones and shelter information
Hawaii County Civil Defense lists evacuation zones for low-lying coastal areas. Shelters are opened in Hilo and Kona. Check local alerts.
Flood safety: avoid roads, rivers and storm drains
Do not drive through flooded roads. Avoid rivers and streams. Turn around if water covers the roadway.
What to do if Hurricane Nolo strengthens or changes track
Monitor NHC and NWS Honolulu updates hourly. Prepare emergency supplies. Follow evacuation orders immediately.
Expert Analysis and Model Outlook
Why Nolo has a unique genesis and lifecycle
Nolo formed from a distinct tropical wave in the central Pacific. Its intensification was rapid in low shear conditions.
Strengthening trend and Category 5 potential
The system reached Category 5 intensity briefly before weakening. Warm sea surface temperatures supported the peak.
When Nolo is expected to move away from Hawaii
NHC expects gradual northward and westward motion by Monday. The system is forecast to move away from the main islands by midweek.
Live Resources and Updates
Official sources: NHC, NWS Honolulu, Hawaii Emergency Management
Official advisories are issued by the National Hurricane Center. Local warnings come from NWS Honolulu and Hawaii Emergency Management Agency.
Radar, satellite and forecast maps
Real-time radar and satellite imagery are available via NWS Honolulu. Forecast track maps are updated every six hours.
How to get real-time alerts for hurricanes weather in Hawaii
Sign up for Wireless Emergency Alerts. Follow local radio and TV. Use the FEMA app for push notifications.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: Where is Hurricane Nolo located now?
- A: As of the 11am HST advisory on Sept 27, 2026, Nolo is nearly stationary just south of Hawaii Island, about 60 miles south-southwest of Kailua-Kona, moving west-northwest at 3 mph.
- Q: What is Hurricane Nolo’s current intensity and forecast?
- A: Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph, close to Category 5. The NHC outlook shows gradual weakening over 48 hours to Category 3 by Sunday.
- Q: Why is the stalling near Big Island concerning?
- A: A stalled or slow-moving hurricane prolongs onshore flow, driving serious flooding risk across windward slopes and extending duration of impacts.
- Q: Is Nolo the only hurricane affecting Hawaii this season?
- A: No. Nolo is the fourth named system to impact Hawaii in 2026, following Lala, Moke and Lowell earlier in the season.
Extended Reading
Hots Insight delivers in-depth news analysis, expert commentary, and global perspectives. The publication was founded in 2026 and is committed to clarity and context in journalism.
Reference coverage of Hurricane Nolo and Hawaii impacts is provided by The Weather Company, Hawaii News Now First Alert Weather, and The Washington Post weather reporting from September 26-30, 2026.