NOAA released its seasonal outlook for the remainder of 2026 on 17 September 2026 with a state-level fall map for October through December. The update covers temperature and precipitation probabilities for all 50 states.
Users want the official seasonal outlook, state-specific fall conditions, and clarity on how the rest of 2026 will look beyond headlines. This is the current NOAA guidance.
What NOAA Just Released for the Rest of 2026
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued the Autumn 2026 outlook. It is a three-month outlook, not a daily forecast.
Key signals for late 2026 include above-normal temperatures across much of the South and West, with equal chances in the northern Plains. Precipitation leans wetter in the northern Rockies and Southeast, including Tennessee, and drier in parts of the Southwest.
NOAA updates are probabilistic and based on ocean conditions, sea ice and model ensembles. Monthly forecasts are different. Monthly forecasts track specific systems. Seasonal outlooks track statistical tendencies.
New NOAA Map Shows Fall Weather in Every US State
The new NOAA map shows fall 2026 temperature and precipitation outlooks by state. It is published by the Climate Prediction Center.
Warmest probabilities are in the Southeast, Southwest and parts of the Northeast. Coolest probabilities are focused on the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Wettest regions are the Southeast and northern Rockies. Driest regions are the Southwest and Pacific Northwest.
Regional Breakdown
Southeast including Tennessee: NOAA shows equal chance to above normal for temperature and above normal for precipitation. The WKRN report notes the outlook for Tennessee for the rest of 2026.
Great Lakes including Michigan: Temperature outlook is near normal to slightly above normal. Precipitation is near normal. The Free Press compared this to Old Farmers Almanac guidance for Michigan.
Northeast trends lean toward above normal temperature with near normal precipitation. Midwest trends are mixed with cooler signals in the north. South trends favor warmer and wetter. West trends favor warmer and drier in the south, near normal in the north.
Fall Is Here. What Is the Latest Weather Forecast
Fall 2026 is underway. Current conditions are being measured against the seasonal outlook.
Above normal means warmer than the 1991-2020 average is more likely than not. Below normal means cooler is more likely. Equal chance means no strong signal.
First frost timing is forecast later than average in the Southeast and earlier in the northern Plains. Rainfall risks are elevated in the Southeast into November. Hurricane season tail risk remains into late October.
NOAA vs Old Farmers Almanac vs NWS Local Forecasts
Three sources provide fall guidance. They differ in method and timeframe.
| Source | Timeframe | Method | Fall 2026 Signal | Best Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center | 3-month seasonal | Model ensembles and climate indicators | Probabilistic temperature and precipitation by state | Official seasonal planning |
| Old Farmers Almanac | Seasonal long-range | Historical patterns and proprietary formula | General warm/cold and wet/dry outlook by region | Context and cultural reference |
| NWS Local Forecasts | Daily to 7-10 day | Observations and numerical weather prediction | Specific storms, frost dates, hourly conditions | Immediate decisions |
What the Forecast Means for You
Agriculture planting and harvest planning can use the outlook for timing. Warmer and wetter Southeast conditions may delay harvest in some areas. Cooler northern signals may accelerate first frost.
Travel and outdoor activities in fall 2026 should account for regional warmth. The Southeast is more likely to see warm spells into November.
Home energy use may be lower in warmer states and higher in cooler northern areas. Preparedness tips include monitoring local NWS updates for frost warnings and rain events.
How to Track NOAA Updates Going Forward
Official updates are published by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The monthly outlook is released around the 15th of each month.
State and county level outlooks are available via the CPC website and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. The CPC map tool allows state selection for temperature and precipitation probabilities.
FAQ
Is NOAA predicting a warm or cold fall 2026. NOAA predicts warmer than average for much of the South and West, near normal to slightly cooler for parts of the northern Plains.
Which states will be wettest this fall according to NOAA. The Southeast including Tennessee and the northern Rockies show higher probabilities for above normal precipitation.
How accurate are NOAA seasonal predictions for the rest of 2026. Seasonal outlooks are probabilistic. Accuracy varies by region and season. Temperature forecasts tend to verify better than precipitation.
Does NOAA forecast differ from NWS daily forecast. Yes. NOAA seasonal outlook is statistical for three months. NWS daily forecast is deterministic for hours to days.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: When did NOAA release the Fall 2026 outlook?
- A: NOAA released the seasonal outlook on 17 September 2026 covering October through December for all 50 states.
- Q: Is the NOAA outlook a daily forecast?
- A: No. It is a three-month probabilistic outlook based on ocean conditions, sea ice and model ensembles, not specific daily weather systems.
- Q: Which regions are expected to be warmer in fall 2026?
- A: Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the South and West, with warmest probabilities in the Southeast, Southwest and parts of the Northeast.
- Q: Where is wetter and drier weather expected?
- A: Wetter conditions lean toward the northern Rockies and Southeast including Tennessee, while drier conditions are favored in parts of the Southwest.
Extended Reading
NOAA releases weather predictions for the rest of 2026. WKRN.
New NOAA Map Shows Fall Weather in Every US State. Men’s Journal.
Fall weather forecast Michigan Old Farmers Almanac NWS. Free Press.
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