NOAA released its fall 2026 seasonal outlook and a state-by-state fall weather map on 17 September 2026. The update covers temperature and precipitation probabilities through December 2026. The outlook is in use by farmers, travelers, event planners and homeowners.
NOAA seasonal outlooks differ from short-term forecasts. Short-term forecasts cover days to two weeks. Seasonal outlooks cover three months and show probabilities, not certainties.
What NOAA Just Released for the Rest of 2026
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its October-December 2026 outlook. Coverage includes temperature and precipitation trends for the contiguous United States.
National trends show an increased probability for above-normal temperatures across much of the South and Southeast. The Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest show a tilt toward near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures. Precipitation probabilities vary regionally, with enhanced odds for wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions in parts of the Southwest.
Tennessee is highlighted in recent coverage. WKRN reported on NOAA’s rest-of-2026 predictions for Tennessee and other states. The state falls within a region favored for warmer than average conditions in fall 2026.
NOAA updates its seasonal outlook monthly. The CPC issues official outlooks on the third Thursday of each month. Probabilities are revised as new observational data arrive.
New NOAA Map Shows Fall Weather in Every US State
Mens Journal reported on NOAA’s new fall weather map for every US state. The map displays three categories for temperature and precipitation: above normal, near normal, below normal.
Southern states including Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia show a higher chance for above-normal temperatures. The Southeast also shows a lean toward wetter than average conditions in September to November.
The Midwest shows a mixed signal. Michigan is in a zone with near-normal temperatures and a slight tilt toward wetter than average conditions. The Upper Midwest shows a higher probability for near-normal temperatures.
NOAA probability maps use tercile categories. A 33% chance for above normal means a one-in-three odds. Confidence is higher when model agreement is strong. Color intensity reflects confidence level, not certainty.
Fall Is Here. What Is the Latest Weather Forecast?
Fall conditions are underway as of late September 2026. Current short-term forecasts from the National Weather Service show day-to-day variability. The seasonal outlook provides the broader background trend.
Michigan fall weather is covered by multiple sources. The Detroit Free Press compared NOAA, NWS and Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts on 21 September 2026. NOAA shows near-normal temperatures for Michigan in fall 2026. NWS short-range forecasts show cooler spells early in the season. Old Farmer’s Almanac projects a warmer than normal fall for the Great Lakes region.
The latest forecast means early fall activities remain viable with normal planning buffers. Harvest windows, outdoor events and travel should account for both short-term watches and the seasonal temperature bias.
How NOAA Seasonal Forecasts Are Made
NOAA seasonal forecasts are produced by the Climate Prediction Center. Inputs include ENSO status, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, snow cover and atmospheric teleconnections such as the Pacific-North American pattern.
Statistical models and dynamical climate models are blended. Forecasts are calibrated against historical analogs.
Limitations exist. Three-month outlooks have modest skill. Skill varies by season and region. Precipitation forecasts are less reliable than temperature forecasts.
The Climate Prediction Center handles seasonal to subseasonal outlooks. The National Weather Service handles short-term weather forecasts and warnings. They are separate missions under NOAA.
NOAA vs Old Farmer’s Almanac vs NWS: Which to Trust
Methodology differs across sources. Use depends on time horizon and decision type.
| Source | Methodology | Lead Time | Fall Temperature Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center | Ensemble climate models + statistical regression on ENSO, SST | 1 to 3 months | ~55 to 65% for 3-month mean |
| National Weather Service | Numerical weather prediction models, observational data | 1 to 14 days | High for short range, not seasonal |
| Old Farmer’s Almanac | Proprietary astronomical and climatological formula, no peer review | 6 to 12 months | Near climatology, low verified skill |
NOAA is the standard for seasonal planning. NWS is the standard for immediate safety decisions. Old Farmer’s Almanac is cultural reference, not operational guidance.
How to Use NOAA Fall Predictions for Planning
Agriculture. Frost risk planning and harvest timing can use the temperature bias. Wetter outlooks inform drainage and field access.
Travel and outdoor events. Book with flexible options in regions with high precipitation probability. Expect warmer early fall in the South.
Energy and home preparation. Warmer fall reduces heating demand early in the season. Homeowners should still prepare for first frost dates based on local climatology.
FAQ
Is the NOAA fall forecast accurate?
Temperature forecasts have modest skill. Accuracy is about 55 to 65% for three-month means in favored regions. Precipitation skill is lower.
How often does NOAA update its 2026 outlook?
Monthly updates are issued on the third Thursday. The fall outlook is updated through December 2026.
Where to check official NOAA weather maps by state?
Official maps are published by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. State-level summaries are available via regional Climate Prediction Centers.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: What did NOAA just release for fall 2026?
- A: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its October-December 2026 seasonal outlook on Sept 17, 2026, with a state-by-state temperature and precipitation probability map for the contiguous United States through December 2026.
- Q: How is a NOAA seasonal outlook different from a short-term forecast?
- A: Short-term forecasts cover days to two weeks with specific predictions. Seasonal outlooks cover three months and show probabilities for above-normal, near-normal or below-normal conditions, not certainties.
- Q: Which regions are favored for warmer or wetter conditions in fall 2026?
- A: Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the South and Southeast, including Tennessee. Enhanced odds for wetter conditions are in the Pacific Northwest, with drier odds in parts of the Southwest. Northern Plains and Upper Midwest trend near-normal to slightly below-normal.
- Q: When does NOAA update its seasonal outlook?
- A: The CPC issues official seasonal outlooks on the third Thursday of each month and revises probabilities as new observational data arrive.
Extended Reading
NOAA releases weather predictions for the rest of 2026. WKRN coverage of national outlook and state impacts. https://www.wkrn.com/news/national/noaa-releases-weather-predictions-for-the-rest-of-2026/
New NOAA Map Shows Fall Weather in Every US State. Mens Journal overview of state-by-state fall map. https://www.mensjournal.com/news/new-noaa-map-shows-fall-weather-in-every-us-state
Fall weather forecast Michigan Old Farmer’s Almanac NWS. Detroit Free Press comparison of fall 2026 forecasts. https://www.freep.com/story/weather/2026/09/21/fall-weather-forecast-michigan-old-farmers-almanac-nws/91871590007/
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