Tommy Paul enters the 2024 US Open ranked No. 14 in the ATP standings, holding +2800 outright championship odds at major U.S. sportsbooks. The 27-year-old Floridian opens his campaign against Croatian qualifier Dino Prižmić on Tuesday, August 27, with first serve scheduled for approximately 11:00 a.m. ET.
Why Tommy Paul Enters the 2024 US Open Flying Under the Radar
Paul reached the Australian Open semifinals in 2023. He has not advanced past the fourth round in New York.
Bookmakers list him behind compatriots Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe in U.S. Open futures. Fritz sits at +1400. Tiafoe holds +1800. Both played in Flushing Meadows semifinals within the last two tournaments.
Paul lacks a signature Grand Slam breakthrough. The public waits for proof.
Paul’s Path to US Open Contender Status: A 2024 Season Recap
Paul holds a 32-18 win-loss record in 2024. He reached the quarterfinals or better at three Masters 1000 events.
Key wins include a fourth-round upset of Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells. He defeated Alexander Zverev in straight sets at the Miami Masters. He advanced to the semifinals at the Canadian Open in Montreal before falling to eventual champion Alexei Popyrin.
The serve and forehand combination works. Paul averaged 12.4 aces per match in 2024. His forehand winners per match climbed to 18.6, a career high.
Paul vs Prižmić Expert Picks & Prediction: Round 1 Breakdown
Sportsbook consensus places Paul as a -1000 favorite. Prižmić sits at +650.
The 18-year-old Prižmić qualified through the US Open draw bracket. He won three qualifying matches in straight sets. His ATP ranking sits at No. 145.
Paul owns the experience edge. He has won 14 consecutive ATP main-draw matches against players ranked outside the top 50 since January 2023.
Predicted score: Paul wins 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.
Where the Oddsmakers Stand: Latest Paul vs Prižmić Betting Lines
| Sportsbook | Paul Moneyline | Prižmić Moneyline | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1000 | +650 | Over 28.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -1100 | +625 | Under 29.5 (-105) |
| BetMGM | -900 | +600 | Over 27.5 (-115) |
| Bet365 | -1000 | +650 | Under 29.5 (-110) |
Set betting lines at FanDuel list Paul -110 to win 3-0. The 3-1 payout sits at +300.
Why the Matchup Tilts Heavily Toward Paul
Prižmić plays a defensive baseline game. Paul’s forehand attacks short balls.
The American wins 71% of first-serve points on hard courts. Prižmić wins 63%. The gap matters on the quick DecoTurf surface in Flushing Meadows.
Paul wins 47% of return games. Prižmić wins 31%. Break points will come fast.
Where to Watch Dino Prižmić vs Tommy Paul: Start Time, Live Stream & TV Channels
The match starts at approximately 11:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, August 27. It airs on ESPN2 and streams on ESPN.com and the ESPN App.
ESPN+ carries the full first-round coverage. Authentication through a cable provider unlocks the feed.
Cord-cutters access the match through YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling TV Orange, and FuboTV. All four carry ESPN2 in their base packages.
| Streaming Service | ESPN2 Included | Monthly Price | Free Trial |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouTube TV | Yes | $72.99 | No |
| Hulu + Live TV | Yes | $76.99 | No |
| Sling TV Orange | Yes | $40.00 | Yes (3-day) |
| FuboTV | Yes | $79.99 | Yes (7-day) |
International viewers watch on Eurosport in Europe. TSN carries the match in Canada. beIN Sports covers Australia and Southeast Asia.
UK fans tune in via Amazon Prime Video, which holds exclusive ATP rights in Britain through 2026.
US Open Tennis 2024 Odds Analysis: Is Tommy Paul Worth Backing?
Paul sits at +2800 for the title. The implied probability is 3.4%.
Fritz holds +1400 (6.7% implied). Tiafoe holds +1800 (5.3% implied).
| Player | Title Odds | Implied Probability | 2024 Hard Court Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | +1400 | 6.7% | 28-12 |
| Frances Tiafoe | +1800 | 5.3% | 26-14 |
| Tommy Paul | +2800 | 3.4% | 24-10 |
| Ben Shelton | +2200 | 4.3% | 22-9 |
Paul’s hard-court record matches or exceeds his American rivals. His odds remain longer. The gap creates value.
Draw Difficulty: Which Quarter of the Bracket Paul Could Land In
Paul projects as a No. 14 seed. The bracket draw places him in the second quarter alongside Novak Djokovic or Daniil Medvedev.
A potential third-round meeting with Alex Michelsen could come early. A quarterfinal date with Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas awaits in the fourth round.
The path is unforgiving. Two top-10 opponents stand between Paul and a semifinal berth.
Historical Context: Have Americans Beaten Paul-Like Odds Recently?
No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. Roddick entered that tournament at +1200.
Sam Querrey reached the 2017 semifinals at +5000. Frances Tiafoe reached the 2022 semifinals at +4000.
Long odds have not stopped American runs. The market undervalues domestic hard-court talent at the US Open.
Value Picks: Where Paul’s Odds Beat His True Winning Probability
Paul’s first-round line offers no return on -1000. The value sits deeper in the bracket.
Backing Paul to reach the quarterfinals at +450 generates 2.2% implied odds against an estimated 12-15% true probability. The bet holds positive expected value.
A semifinals ticket at +1200 implies 7.7% odds. Paul’s ceiling sits at 8-10%.
The Making of America’s Next Tennis Superstar
Paul trains with coach Brad Stine. The pair split briefly in 2023 before reuniting in January.
Stine rebuilt Paul’s serve motion during the offseason. The first-serve percentage climbed from 62% to 68% in 2024.
Paul works with sports psychologist Dr. Anne Mulins at IMG Academy in Bradenton. He has spoken publicly about managing Grand Slam pressure through routine and breathing exercises.
Comparisons to Andy Roddick carry weight. Both serve first. Both attack off the forehand. Roddick peaked at No. 1. Paul sits at No. 14. The gap narrows.
John Isner and Reilly Opelka both won fewer Masters titles. Paul has reached three Masters quarterfinals. The trajectory differs.
Long-Term Outlook: Can Paul Crack the Top 10 in 2025?
Paul sits 312 points behind No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov. Two quarterfinal runs at Masters events close the gap.
Age works against him. He turns 28 in April. The window narrows.
Form favors him. His game suits hard courts. The 2025 Australian Open and US Open offer 4,000 ranking points between them.
Top 10 by year-end 2025? Possible. Not probable.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: What are Tommy Paul’s odds to win the 2024 US Open?
- A: Tommy Paul holds +2800 outright championship odds at major U.S. sportsbooks, ranking him behind fellow Americans Taylor Fritz (+1400) and Frances Tiafoe (+1800).
- Q: Who is Tommy Paul playing in the first round of the 2024 US Open?
- A: Paul opens his 2024 US Open campaign against 18-year-old Croatian qualifier Dino Prižmić on Tuesday, August 27, with first serve scheduled for approximately 11:00 a.m. ET. Paul is listed as a -1000 favorite.
- Q: Has Tommy Paul ever made a deep run at the US Open?
- A: No. Paul’s best US Open result is the fourth round. He reached the Australian Open semifinals in 2023, but he has yet to achieve a signature Grand Slam breakthrough at Flushing Meadows.
- Q: What is Tommy Paul’s 2024 season record and key wins?
- A: Paul holds a 32-18 win-loss record in 2024, reaching the quarterfinals or better at three Masters 1000 events. Key victories include upsetting Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells and defeating Alexander Zverev in straight sets at the Miami Masters.
Extended Reading
Background data on Paul vs Prižmić betting lines and US Open broadcast details sourced from Sports Betting Dime and Springfield News-Sun corrections archive.